Telos Research Group identifies structural shifts weeks to months before markets price them in — starting with the physical, engineering, and institutional constraints that narrative cannot override. Every thesis is stress-tested from multiple independent perspectives before publication.
View Research Tracking| Asset | Direction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| HG Futures | LONG | High |
| SCCO | LONG | Medium |
| FCX | LONG | Medium |
A rigorous five-phase pipeline from hypothesis identification to published report.
42+ data sources across macro indicators, energy markets, institutional filings, congressional activity, geopolitical intelligence, commodity flows, and academic research — monitored around the clock.
Every hypothesis is researched from multiple independent angles. We trace causal chains from physical triggers through transmission mechanisms to specific market impact.
Before publication, every thesis is systematically attacked: base rate neglect, survivorship bias, temporal displacement, market microstructure, and more. Only survivors reach you.
Published theses are monitored continuously. We update probabilities as conditions evolve and publish transparent accuracy records. Our track record is public.
Subscribers see live status of all research theses with probability updates and scenario tracking.
| Hypothesis | Date Published | Current Status | Probability | Active Scenario | Alpha Window | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper Supply Squeeze: Chile Water Crisis × AI Data Center Demand | Mar 10, 2026 | Active | 68–76% | Central — Accelerating | Anticipatory | View Report ↗ |
| LNG Rerouting: Red Sea Disruption Impact on European Gas Storage | Mar 3, 2026 | On Track | 62–71% | Central — Materializing | Flash | View Report ↗ |
| Semiconductor Capex Cycle: Underpriced EUV Tooling Bottleneck | Feb 24, 2026 | Active | 57–65% | Downside — Delayed catalyst | Structural | View Report ↗ |
| Agricultural Drought Cascade: La Niña × Global Fertilizer Costs | Feb 17, 2026 | On Track | 52–60% | Central — Monitoring triggers | Anticipatory | View Report ↗ |
| Defense Budget Reallocation: NATO 2% Commitments × Supply Chain | Feb 10, 2026 | Confirmed | 74–82% | Upside — Exceeded expectations | Structural | View Report ↗ |
| US Regional Banking: CRE Refinancing Wall × Rate Hold | Feb 3, 2026 | Killed | — | — | Flash | Archived |
This is sample data. Subscribe to see live tracking.
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