Live status of all research theses — updated as new evidence is incorporated.
Probability estimates reflect our assessment of whether the underlying structural thesis will materialize as described. They do not represent price targets, trading signals, or recommendations regarding any specific security.
| Hypothesis | Published | Identified | Domain | Status | Assets | Probability | Assessment Horizon | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Transit Dump Illusion — Oil Curve Structure Mispricing as Cape-to-Hormuz Rerouting Creates Phantom Surplus | 2026-06-29 | 2026-06-29 | energy | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Energy Transition Bottleneck Crisis — Dual Fossil and Renewable System Strain During AI Acceleration | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-26 | infrastructure | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Permanent Hormuz Toll Regime Implementation — Iran Monetizes Strategic Chokepoint Control Through Persistent Commercial Transit Fees | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-08 | geopolitical | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Mega-IPO Capital Magnet — Unprecedented $200B+ AI Public Offering Wave Creates Tactical Halo Re-Rating Window With Defined Exit Triggers (June–September 2026) | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-07 | technology | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Physical-Financial Oil Price Disconnect — Spot/Futures Basis Blowout Creates Structural Trading Dislocation and Commodity House Superprofits | 2026-05-29 | 2026-04-24 | energy | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Bank-Dealer Balance Sheet Strain Breaks Cross-Asset Pricing Transmission — Mechanical Arbitrage Failure Forces Systemic Repricing | 2026-05-27 | 2026-05-27 | banking | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| BDC Redemption Contagion Wave — Gating-Driven Forced Sales Create Self-Reinforcing Private Credit Discount Spiral | 2026-05-25 | 2026-04-25 | credit | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Infrastructure Power Wall Crisis — Grid Constraints as New Semiconductor Scarcity Analogue | 2026-05-20 | 2026-05-20 | infrastructure | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Inflation Breakeven Disconnect — TIPS Market Mispricing Duration of Energy-Driven Inflation Creates Asymmetric Long-Inflation Trade | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-15 | monetary | active | 12 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Project Freedom Escalation Lock-In — US Military Escort Operations at Hormuz Create Irreversible Commitment Trap Eliminating Diplomatic Off-Ramps | 2026-05-14 | 2026-05-05 | geopolitical | killed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Strategic Metal Hoarding Crisis — Demand-Side Scarcity Amplifies Supply Deficit in Aluminum & Copper | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-12 | commodities | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Semiconductor Monopoly Bottlenecks | 2026-05-05 | 2026-02-24 | technology | active | 11 | Preview & Buy | ||
| SaaS Apocalypse Mispricing: Structural Moats Make ~65% of the SaaS Sector Immune to AI Displacement and Seat Compression | 2026-04-30 | 2026-04-30 | software | active | 24 | Preview & Buy | ||
| EU Aviation Fuel Crisis — Hormuz Jet Fuel Supply Disruption Forces Emergency Regulation and European Airline Margin Destruction | 2026-04-26 | 2026-04-22 | energy | active | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Commodity Fund PM Liquidation Cascade — Oil-Driven Dislocation & Reversion | 2026-04-23 | 2026-04-22 | commodities | active | 13 | Preview & Buy | ||
| India Hormuz Kinetic Vulnerability — Strategic Oil Import Dependency Creates Asymmetric Geopolitical Leverage Point | 2026-04-18 | 2026-04-18 | emerging markets | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Ceasefire Positioning Unwind Trap — Market Front-Running Iran Peace Creates Asymmetric Snap-Back Risk | 2026-04-13 | 2026-04-11 | geopolitical | active | 13 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Persian Gulf Energy Architecture Collapse — From Transit Blockade to Production Destruction | 2026-04-12 | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US Manufacturing Double Squeeze — Section 232 Metals Tariffs (50%) + Gulf Smelter Shutdowns Create Cost-Push Industrial Margin Compression | 2026-04-07 | 2026-04-07 | supply chain | active | 15 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran War Mechanical Contagion — Index/Fund Redemption Cascades Create Asymmetric Buy Opportunities in Non-Exposed Assets | 2026-04-05 | 2026-04-05 | geopolitical | active | 40 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Ground Invasion Phase Escalation — Kinetic Step-Change Creates Fiscal and Market Regime Shift | 2026-04-04 | 2026-04-02 | geopolitical | active | 14 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Fed Policy Trap — Oil-Inflation Doom Loop Prevents Rate Relief During Accelerating Credit Deterioration | 2026-04-02 | 2026-03-30 | monetary | active | 21 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Scaling Reaches US Adoption Threshold — Structural Repricing Across Insurance, Real Estate, Labor, Energy, and Municipal Finance | 2026-04-01 | 2026-03-31 | technology | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| EGA Aluminum Potline Freeze — Structural Supply Shock | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-29 | commodities | on track | 2 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Asian Petrochemical Doom Loop — Naphtha Shortage Cascading Into Consumer Goods Crisis | 2026-03-28 | 2026-03-26 | supply chain | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Narrative Intervention Failure — Epic Fury Cascade Resumption | 2026-03-24 | 2026-03-24 | geopolitical | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US-Iran Protracted War & Great Power Economic Attrition Strategy | 2026-03-21 | 2026-03-21 | geopolitical | active | 17 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Energy Under Fire: Kinetic Escalation & Stagflation Risk | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-20 | geopolitical | active | 13 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Global Food Security Crisis — Fertilizer Supply Disruption via Qatar QAFCO Shutdown | 2026-03-19 | 2026-03-18 | agriculture | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Global LNG Supply Crisis — Qatar Shutdown Cascading Effects | 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-18 | energy | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Oil $200 Scenario — Sustained Middle East Conflict Escalation | 2026-03-18 | 2026-03-18 | energy | active | 15 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Private Credit Systemic Contagion | 2026-03-17 | 2026-03-17 | credit | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Egypt as Fourth Core EM Crisis Member | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-16 | emerging markets | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Synchronized EM Oil-Import Currency Crisis | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-16 | emerging markets | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Private Credit Refinancing Wall 2026-2027 | 2026-03-15 | 2026-03-15 | credit | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Global Energy Disruption (Mar 2026) | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Epic Fury Cascading Crisis | 2026-03-05 | 2026-03-05 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| B2B Software Unregulated Monopolies | 2026-03-04 | 2026-03-04 | software | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Post-Epic Fury Capital Flow Analysis | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-03 | geopolitical | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Operation Epic Fury — Regional Cascade | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Unregulated Utilities — Global Screen | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | software | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Conflict Volatility Analysis | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| C3is Maritime Take-Private | 2026-02-28 | 2026-02-28 | maritime | active | 1 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Cuban Energy Transition | 2026-02-27 | 2026-02-27 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Congressional Trading Intelligence | 2026-02-24 | 2026-02-24 | regulatory | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US-China Geoeconomic Rupture | 2026-02-22 | 2026-02-22 | geopolitical | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Sovereign-Repo Nexus Crisis | 2026-02-22 | 2026-02-22 | monetary | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Fragility Volatility Dynamics | 2026-02-22 | 2026-02-22 | monetary | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Defense Contracting & Zero Trust Capture | 2026-02-22 | 2026-02-22 | technology | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Military Scenarios Analysis | 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-15 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Fragility Capital Flow Analysis | 2026-02-15 | 2026-02-15 | monetary | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Market Indicators Validation Framework | 2026-02-01 | 2026-02-01 | fiscal | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Warsh Fed Reset — Precious Metals Crash | 2026-01-30 | 2026-01-30 | monetary | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Mar-a-Lago Accord — Monetary Reset | 2026-01-27 | 2026-01-27 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Debasement-Kinetic Dual Framework | 2026-01-27 | 2026-01-27 | monetary | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US Government Critical Minerals Stakes | 2026-01-26 | 2026-01-26 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Geopolitical Structural Shifts 2026 | 2026-01-25 | 2026-01-25 | geopolitical | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Stimulus-Deflation Paradox | 2026-01-25 | 2026-01-25 | monetary | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Davos 2026 Geoeconomic Rupture | 2026-01-23 | 2026-01-23 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Defense Supply Chain & Arctic Realignment | 2026-01-17 | 2026-01-17 | geopolitical | on track | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| CRE Maturity Wall Crisis | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-15 | credit | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Unregulated Utility Structural Analysis | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-15 | software | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Market Fragility 2026 | 2026-01-15 | 2026-01-15 | monetary | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Military Strikes — Energy Disruption | 2026-01-14 | 2026-01-14 | geopolitical | confirmed | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Gold Revaluation & Balance Sheet Reset | 2026-01-06 | 2026-01-06 | geopolitical | killed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Venezuela Oil Rehabilitation | 2026-01-04 | 2026-01-04 | geopolitical | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Capex Contagion & Private Credit | — | 2026-02-22 | technology | killed | 0 | Preview & Buy |
Try one report
Weekly intelligence
Full picture
Every report ever published