Live status of all research theses — updated as new evidence is incorporated.
Probability estimates reflect our assessment of whether the underlying structural thesis will materialize as described. They do not represent price targets, trading signals, or recommendations regarding any specific security.
| Hypothesis | Identified | Domain | Status | Assets | Probability | Assessment Horizon | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Freedom Escalation Lock-In — US Military Escort Operations at Hormuz Create Irreversible Commitment Trap Eliminating Diplomatic Off-Ramps | 2026-05-05 | geopolitical | active | 15 | Preview & Buy | ||
| SaaS Apocalypse Mispricing: Structural Moats Make ~65% of the SaaS Sector Immune to AI Displacement and Seat Compression | 2026-04-30 | software | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| EU Aviation Fuel Crisis — Hormuz Jet Fuel Supply Disruption Forces Emergency Regulation and European Airline Margin Destruction | 2026-04-22 | energy | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Commodity Fund PM Liquidation Cascade — Oil-Driven Dislocation & Reversion | 2026-04-22 | commodities | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| India Hormuz Kinetic Vulnerability — Strategic Oil Import Dependency Creates Asymmetric Geopolitical Leverage Point | 2026-04-18 | emerging markets | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Strategic Metal Hoarding Crisis — Demand-Side Scarcity Amplifies Supply Deficit in Aluminum & Copper | 2026-04-12 | commodities | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Ceasefire Positioning Unwind Trap — Market Front-Running Iran Peace Creates Asymmetric Snap-Back Risk | 2026-04-11 | geopolitical | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US Manufacturing Double Squeeze — Section 232 Metals Tariffs (50%) + Gulf Smelter Shutdowns Create Cost-Push Industrial Margin Compression | 2026-04-07 | supply chain | active | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran War Mechanical Contagion — Index/Fund Redemption Cascades Create Asymmetric Buy Opportunities in Non-Exposed Assets | 2026-04-05 | geopolitical | active | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Ground Invasion Phase Escalation — Kinetic Step-Change Creates Fiscal and Market Regime Shift | 2026-04-02 | geopolitical | active | 8 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Autonomous Vehicle Fleet Scaling Reaches US Adoption Threshold — Structural Repricing Across Insurance, Real Estate, Labor, Energy, and Municipal Finance | 2026-03-31 | technology | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Fed Policy Trap — Oil-Inflation Doom Loop Prevents Rate Relief During Accelerating Credit Deterioration | 2026-03-30 | monetary | active | 13 | Preview & Buy | ||
| EGA Aluminum Potline Freeze — Structural Supply Shock | 2026-03-29 | commodities | on track | 2 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Asian Petrochemical Doom Loop — Naphtha Shortage Cascading Into Consumer Goods Crisis | 2026-03-26 | supply chain | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Narrative Intervention Failure — Epic Fury Cascade Resumption | 2026-03-24 | geopolitical | active | 8 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US-Iran Protracted War & Great Power Economic Attrition Strategy | 2026-03-21 | geopolitical | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Energy Under Fire: Kinetic Escalation & Stagflation Risk | 2026-03-20 | geopolitical | active | 11 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Global Food Security Crisis — Fertilizer Supply Disruption via Qatar QAFCO Shutdown | 2026-03-18 | agriculture | active | 8 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Global LNG Supply Crisis — Qatar Shutdown Cascading Effects | 2026-03-18 | energy | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Oil $200 Scenario — Sustained Middle East Conflict Escalation | 2026-03-18 | energy | active | 14 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Private Credit Systemic Contagion | 2026-03-17 | credit | active | 9 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Egypt as Fourth Core EM Crisis Member | 2026-03-16 | emerging markets | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Synchronized EM Oil-Import Currency Crisis | 2026-03-16 | emerging markets | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Private Credit Refinancing Wall 2026-2027 | 2026-03-15 | credit | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Global Energy Disruption (Mar 2026) | 2026-03-12 | geopolitical | on track | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Epic Fury Cascading Crisis | 2026-03-05 | geopolitical | on track | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| B2B Software Unregulated Monopolies | 2026-03-04 | software | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Post-Epic Fury Capital Flow Analysis | 2026-03-03 | geopolitical | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Persian Gulf Energy Architecture Collapse — From Transit Blockade to Production Destruction | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Unregulated Utilities — Global Screen | 2026-02-28 | software | active | 7 | Preview & Buy | ||
| C3is Maritime Take-Private | 2026-02-28 | maritime | active | 1 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Conflict Volatility Analysis | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Operation Epic Fury — Regional Cascade | 2026-02-28 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Cuban Energy Transition | 2026-02-27 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Semiconductor Monopoly Bottlenecks | 2026-02-24 | technology | active | 11 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Congressional Trading Intelligence | 2026-02-24 | regulatory | active | 6 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Fragility Volatility Dynamics | 2026-02-22 | monetary | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Defense Contracting & Zero Trust Capture | 2026-02-22 | technology | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US-China Geoeconomic Rupture | 2026-02-22 | geopolitical | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Sovereign-Repo Nexus Crisis | 2026-02-22 | monetary | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| AI Capex Contagion & Private Credit | 2026-02-22 | technology | killed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Military Scenarios Analysis | 2026-02-15 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Fragility Capital Flow Analysis | 2026-02-15 | monetary | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Market Indicators Validation Framework | 2026-02-01 | fiscal | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Warsh Fed Reset — Precious Metals Crash | 2026-01-30 | monetary | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Debasement-Kinetic Dual Framework | 2026-01-27 | monetary | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Mar-a-Lago Accord — Monetary Reset | 2026-01-27 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| US Government Critical Minerals Stakes | 2026-01-26 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Stimulus-Deflation Paradox | 2026-01-25 | monetary | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Geopolitical Structural Shifts 2026 | 2026-01-25 | geopolitical | active | 3 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Davos 2026 Geoeconomic Rupture | 2026-01-23 | regulatory | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Defense Supply Chain & Arctic Realignment | 2026-01-17 | geopolitical | on track | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Unregulated Utility Structural Analysis | 2026-01-15 | software | active | 10 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Systemic Market Fragility 2026 | 2026-01-15 | monetary | active | 4 | Preview & Buy | ||
| CRE Maturity Wall Crisis | 2026-01-15 | credit | active | 5 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Iran Military Strikes — Energy Disruption | 2026-01-14 | geopolitical | confirmed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Gold Revaluation & Balance Sheet Reset | 2026-01-06 | geopolitical | killed | 0 | Preview & Buy | ||
| Venezuela Oil Rehabilitation | 2026-01-04 | geopolitical | active | 7 | Preview & Buy |
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